ATP & WTA Tennis
Tennis Picks & Predictions
Point-level Markov tennis model, run 250,000 times per match. Calibrated win probabilities, fair lines and a public ledger receipt for every pick.
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Method
How VigLines picks Tennis
Tennis is scored in nested layers of points, games, tiebreaks and sets, so VigLines models it from the point up. Each player’s serve and return strength is estimated with a surface-blended Elo rating, converted into the probability of winning a point on serve, and then chained through a Markov model of games, tiebreaks and sets for best-of-three and best-of-five formats. The output is not just a match-winner probability but a distribution of sets and total games. Surface-specific and overall ratings are blended because clay, grass and hard courts reward different skills, and the rating’s update speed slows as a player’s match count grows. Tennis data used for research is licensed for non-commercial use only, so paid tennis picks stay on hold until a commercial feed is live. The power rankings page shows the current Elo table from the champion model when one is registered.