MLB Baseball
MLB Picks & Predictions
Half-inning baseball simulation, run 250,000 times per game. Calibrated win probabilities, fair lines and a public ledger receipt for every pick.
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Method
How VigLines picks MLB
Baseball is a starting-pitcher sport, so VigLines will not publish an MLB pick until both probable starters are recorded, either from a licensed feed or entered on our operator desk with a public source link. Each game is then simulated 250,000 times half-inning by half-inning: the starter’s innings, the bullpen’s innings, a walk-off rule that stops the bottom of the ninth once the home team leads, and the automatic runner in extra innings. The result is a run distribution that prices the moneyline, the run line and the total from the same simulation. Ratings are split between run scoring and run prevention and refreshed after every final; day games and altitude adjust the scoring environment. As with every sport, the model is market-free at its core, calibrated on walk-forward seasons, and every published probability is written to the public ledger before first pitch.