NHL Hockey
NHL Picks & Predictions
Period-level hockey simulation, run 250,000 times per game. Calibrated win probabilities, fair lines and a public ledger receipt for every pick.
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Method
How VigLines picks NHL
Hockey outcomes hinge on a handful of goals, which makes honest uncertainty essential. The VigLines NHL engine simulates regulation period by period from each team’s goal-scoring and goal-prevention ratings, adds the empty-net goals that decide so many late games, and then plays three-on-three overtime and, in the regular season, the shootout. Running that 250,000 times yields a regulation-time result, a final result, puck-line coverage and a goal-total distribution from a single seeded run. Ratings are multiplicative (a strong offense against a weak defense compounds) and carry their own uncertainty, which widens after the off-season. Rest and back-to-back schedules enter as measured effects, and playoff games use their own scoring environment. Calibration, the reliability diagram and the full graded record for every published pick are public.