NCAA Basketball
College Basketball Picks & Predictions
Possession-level basketball simulation (college rules), run 250,000 times per game. Calibrated win probabilities, fair lines and a public ledger receipt for every pick.
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Method
How VigLines picks College Basketball
With more than 350 Division I teams and thin head-to-head connections early in the season, college basketball rewards a model that knows what it does not know. VigLines rates every team with an uncertainty-aware Kalman filter and simulates each game possession by possession, 250,000 times, using college pace ranges, two halves and overtime. Early-season ratings carry wide uncertainty, so probabilities stay appropriately modest until conference play connects the field. Neutral-site tournament games drop home-court advantage automatically. Every published number traces back to a seeded, reproducible simulation, and the seed, trial count and model version are printed on each game’s ledger receipt. If the schedule feed is not licensed for commercial use yet, or a result backlog would leave ratings stale, the game is recorded as a data hold with the reason, not quietly skipped.