NCAA Football
College Football Picks & Predictions
Drive-level football simulation (college rules), run 250,000 times per game. Calibrated win probabilities, fair lines and a public ledger receipt for every pick.
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Method
How VigLines picks College Football
College football is where rating uncertainty matters most: more than a hundred FBS programs, lopsided non-conference schedules, and rosters that turn over every year. VigLines models each team with a Kalman-filtered strength rating that carries its own uncertainty, regresses toward the mean between seasons, and widens when a program has played few connected opponents. Each game is simulated 250,000 times at the drive level with college overtime rules, so the output is a full distribution of margins and totals rather than a single number. That distribution is calibrated on walk-forward seasons the model never saw during fitting. When a slate is missing a licensed live feed or a required input, the matchup is recorded as a data hold with the exact reason instead of being guessed. Published picks, holds and final grades all live on the same public, hash-chained ledger.