NFL Football
NFL Picks & Predictions
Drive-level football simulation, run 250,000 times per game. Calibrated win probabilities, fair lines and a public ledger receipt for every pick.
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Method
How VigLines picks NFL
VigLines NFL picks come from a drive-level simulation, not a hunch. Every game is played 250,000 times: each trial samples both teams’ strength from a Kalman-filtered rating (so a team the model knows less about gets a wider range, not false precision), converts it into touchdowns, field goals and missed extra points across a realistic drive count, and applies NFL overtime rules. Situational inputs such as rest, travel distance and altitude enter as measured margin effects, and every driver is shown with its signed contribution. Probabilities are then calibrated against walk-forward, out-of-sample history before anything is published. We also publish the uncomfortable part: a game-by-game comparison with closing market prices on the performance page, shown even where the market has been more accurate than the model. Every pick is written to a hash-chained public ledger before kickoff and graded after the final whistle.