Transparency
Model performance
Two different records, labeled separately: the live graded record of published picks, and walk-forward backtests where each season is predicted only by a model trained on earlier seasons.
Live
Graded record of published picks
Counted from the ledger’s official predictions only — one graded pick per game (the last row published before the start), never a better-looking earlier or later version.
Performance data is temporarily unavailable. The intelligence service is not responding. This page will show live data as soon as it reconnects.
Backtest
Walk-forward, out-of-sample
Log loss and Brier score reward honest probabilities (lower is better). The baseline predicts the historical home-win rate for every game. ECE is the average gap between predicted and observed win rates.