NBA Basketball
NBA Picks & Predictions
Possession-level basketball simulation, run 250,000 times per game. Calibrated win probabilities, fair lines and a public ledger receipt for every pick.
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Method
How VigLines picks NBA
NBA games are decided over roughly a hundred possessions, so VigLines simulates them that way. Each of 250,000 trials samples a game pace and each team’s points per possession from ratings that update after every result, with home-court advantage and rest estimated from data rather than assumed. Ties go to five-minute overtimes, exactly as on the court. Because the output is a full score distribution, the same run produces a win probability, a fair spread, a fair total and the probability of any line you bring. Calibration is checked on out-of-sample seasons: when the model says 70%, those teams should win about 70% of the time, and the reliability diagram on our performance page shows whether they do. Availability news matters more in basketball than anywhere else, which is why injury inputs are logged with their source and time, and why a pick that depends on a stale injury report is held rather than published.