Soccer
Soccer Picks & Predictions
Dixon–Coles goal model, run 250,000 times per match. Calibrated win probabilities, fair lines and a public ledger receipt for every pick.
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Method
How VigLines picks Soccer
In soccer a draw is a real outcome, and many models misprice it. VigLines uses a Dixon–Coles goal model: each side’s attack and defense strength sets an expected goal rate, and the Dixon–Coles correction adjusts the probabilities of 0–0, 1–0, 0–1 and 1–1, the scorelines where simple independent-goal models go wrong. The match is simulated 250,000 times to produce home, draw and away probabilities, Asian handicap and total-goals coverage, and a full scoreline distribution. Strengths update after every match and regress between seasons, and each league keeps its own scoring baseline. Fixtures that lack a licensed, point-in-time feed are held with a reason rather than published. Every published match probability is recorded on the public ledger before kickoff and graded at full time.